股价见顶的信号之一。在《投资者的未来》一书中，沃顿商学院教授杰里米·西格尔描写了他在网络泡沫破灭之前因发表了一篇质疑网络股估值的文章而遭受的种种质疑。他这篇文章在1999年4月19日发表于华尔街日报，所举的例子是美国在线。美国在线在2000年至2009年期间是美国时代华纳的子公司，是著名的因特网服务提供商。在2000年美国在线和时代华纳宣布合并，2001年1月11日该交易被联邦贸易委员会证实。该公司在西格尔发表文章时静态市盈率为700倍，动态市盈率450倍，市值高达2000亿美金。对于如此高的估值，美林的网络股票分析师亨利·布洛杰特认为这是有经典的衡量标准作为依据的。西格尔却认为他是在愚弄大众，他认为“为一家科技类先锋公司定价所需使用的工具和为IBM即过去的其他科技巨人定价所使用的工具并没有什么区别”。西格尔的文章引发了投资人的强烈不满。一些投资人认为他对先进的商务模式一无所知，在识别机遇方面的水平等同于幼儿。还有一些投资人认为沃顿商学院应该赶快让他退休，否则商学院的名誉将受到损害。在遭遇这一切之后，西格尔意识到投资人爱上了他们所投资的股票，这其实也是股价见顶的信号之一。通常在股价接近或达到泡沫时期，投资人通常不会理性地看待股票，他们相信这次不一样。但结果往往是泡沫破裂。周末爆出的A股半导体行业卖方分析师和实业界人士的争论其实是西格尔所遭遇的一切的翻版。历史不会重复，但会踏着同样的韵脚。当前A股的部分行业的股票估值也达到了几百倍的市盈率，而投资人支付这么高的估值的理由也是这次不一样。但是，历史证明，这次不一样是投资中最昂贵的一句话。美国在线在2015年被威瑞森通信收购，收购价格为45亿美金，估值较2000年高点下跌98%。

A股巨量反弹，港股缩量上涨。A股申万28个行业中仅有钢铁、采掘和休闲服务板块下跌，建筑材料、汽车和国防军工板块领涨。港股12个行业中，只有公用事业行业下跌，原材料、工业和电讯行业领涨。美股尾盘跳水，因投资人担忧疫情加剧影响经济复苏。10年期国债收益率下跌到1.17%。

A sign that stock price is peaking. Jeremy Siegel described what happened to him after he published an article on Wall Street Journal on April 19th 1999 about the high valuation of internet stocks. He cited American Online as an example. American Online is an internet provider and combined with Time Warner in 2001. The stock was valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 700x and forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio 450x. Its market cap reached US$200billion at that time. The Merrill Lynch internet analyst Henry Blodget said that American Online was valued on classic valuation metric. Yet Siegel believed that he was just making a fool of common investors and insisted that there would be no major differences of valuation metric for a pioneer technology company such as American online and the past tech giant such as IBM. Siegel then suffered critics from many investors. Some sent email to tell him that he did not have the capabilities to understand new technology. Some asked Wharton School to let Siegel retire as soon as possible so that he would not hurt the reputation of the school. What happened to Siegel is very similar to what happened to a tech guy from a leading semiconductor company over the past weekend. He was also criticized by a sell-side analyst as knowing little about semiconductor sector. According to Siegel this usually means that investors fall in love with the stocks they invest. This is one of the signs that stock price is peaking. Currently in A-share there are also companies in semiconductor and other sectors valued at an extreme level.Investors believe that this time it is different, which turns out to be the most expensive words for investors. American Online was acquired by Verizon in 2015 at a price of US$4.5 billion, down 98% from its peak valuation in 1999.

A-share rallied with big trading volume while HK stocks rose with contracted volume. The US stocks dived at the final trading hour as investors were concerned that Delta variant could hamper economic recovery. The US 10-year treasury yield fell to 1.17% and oil prices fell sharply as well. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

股市里没有永远的神。近期白酒板块大幅下跌，引发投资人的热议。我们之前曾多次在枫瑞视点微信公众号中讨论过这一板块，具体请参见股票的定价不能建立在遥远的未来、A股市场的割裂等。在某卖方上调某著名消费股目标价的时候，分析了牛市中卖方分析师的作用。我们一直想传达的是：投资中最重要的就是盈利和估值的匹配。市场火热的时候，投资人通常都关注趋势不关注估值。这些投资人很容易在趋势逆转的时候，产品业绩受到冲击。有投资人问追逐成长股难道不是一个很好的投资策略吗？确实，至少在过去十年，成长股策略是远远跑赢价值股的。一个典型的例子就是作为股神的巴菲特，近些年来收益率较低，与其坚守价值股而没有配置科技成长股有很大的关系。但是，成长股有成长股的烦恼。一个就是快速成长的时间不会是永久的。通常而言，一家公司能有几年的高增长就是很好的公司了。其次，由于投资人都喜欢成长股，估值一般都比较高。尤其2008年金融危机以来，成长股的估值远远高于价值股。这是由于2008年金融危机以来，全球经济低速成长，成长股变得很稀缺有很大关系。但是，今年情况发生了逆转。很多周期股的业绩增速都大超预期，而且估值都很低。这对传统的消费医药成长股构成了冲击。今年消费医药行业业绩增速有所放缓，抱团基金逐渐减仓这些板块，有的加仓到周期性行业上，有的选择其他成长赛道。所以，股市里没有一直涨的股票，也没有永远的神。时刻对市场保持敬畏。

疫情下中美经济面临下行风险。中国7月官方制造业采购经理人指数回落，美经济2季度增速低于预期。全球Delta 病毒肆虐，预计对3季度经济增长可能造成一定冲击。从周期来看，中国经济已经进入库存周期的下行期，美国经济有可能在3季度进入库存周期下行期。中央政治局工作会议释放出的政策信号对经济友好，下半年财政政策应偏积极，4季度随着经济下行压力加大，货币政策有进一步放松可能。

上周（ 下同）A股和港股领跌全球。上证指数、深成指和恒生指数分别下跌4.98%、4.3%和3.69%。港股通净流出227亿人民币，创下港股通开通以来的最大周度净流出。这一方面与港股大跌有关，另一方面港股自8月1日上调交易印花税。

There is no the invincible in stock markets. With the broad market declining that liquor sector fell more than any other sector has provoked a lot of discussion. We have discussed liquor in our official wechat “Maple Insights” in “Stocks should not be valued based on a far future”, “The divergence in A-share” and “What a sell-side analyst usually does in a bull market”. We want to convey the idea that a stock should be valued in line with its earnings growth rate. However, in a bull market few investors pay attention to valuation as the upward trend seems to last forever. As such when the trend reverses investors would suffer big losses. From 2008 global financial crises global economy was in low growth rate mode. High growth has become a scarcity and growth stocks are valued at an extreme level. Yet since the pandemic the low-valued cyclical sectors has seen earnings growth accelerate. Also in 2021 consumption and healthcare stocks saw their growth rate come down. As a result those funds huddled in these two sectors flied away. They either put their money in cyclical sectors or other growth sectors. So no stocks can rise forever. We should pay attention to valuation when investing in a stock and always remain humble in the stock market.  

Delta variant poses downside risk to global economic growth.  China July official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index showed that economy was slowing down. Moreover, Delta variant caused new cases to surge both at home and abroad. China has seen inventory cycle to begin a downward trend in March while the US is still waiting for the peak of its economy, which might come in 3Q2021. Yet China’s fiscal policy might become more accommodative in 2H2021. And if economy faces more challenges in 4Q2021 monetary policy could become more easing, for example, by cutting interest rate. Last week A-share and HK stocks fell the most among the global 16 major indexes. HK-connect saw the largest weekly net outflow since it began both due to the stock market tumble last week and that HK will raise stamp duty for stock trading from August 1st . 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

美联储能否退出宽松货币政策？美国2季度GDP实际年化增速为6.4%，虽然较1季度的6.3%有所提高，但大幅低于市场预期的8.4%。同时，周四披露的上周初次申请失业救济人数为40万，这大概是疫情前初次申请失业救济人数的2倍，同时高于市场预期的38万人。虽然美联储在7月份的议息会议上明示将要考虑削减债券购买，但美国10年期国债收益率仍回落到1.264%的低水平。10年期国债收益率代表联邦基金利率的终极水平。该收益率回落意味着市场不相信美联储能够重复15-18年的加息周期。在这个加息周期中，美联储9次加息，最终联邦基金利率在2018年11月达到3.2%的高水平。美国当前的国债规模接近30万亿美金（下同），而每年的GDP增速在2-3%之间。20万亿GDP意味着每年的GDP增量仅为4000-6000亿。这就是说美国的联邦基金利率不能超过2%，否则美国经济增量连还利息都不够。从欧洲和日本的经验看，宽松货币政策一旦实施都很难退出。因为经济体对低利率产生依赖性之后，流动性收紧对经济体会造成较大风险。首先，利率上升会刺破资产泡沫。以美国为例，如果流动性收紧超出预期，股市泡沫就面临破灭的风险。美国2008年次贷危机爆发，也是因为加息刺破了房地产泡沫。其次，欧美等发达国家消费占GDP比重较高，通常在70-80%,而消费信贷是支撑经济的一个重要工具。如果利率上升，对消费不利，进而阻碍GDP增速。美国2008年金融危机发生后开始实行宽松的货币政策。2015年开始退出宽松货币政策，主要是因为美国经济增速强劲，也使美国成为唯一一个能够退出宽松货币政策的发达国家。而日本实行了一轮又一轮的宽松货币政策，经济始终没有较好表现，无奈只能继续宽松。日本央行成为日本股票市场最大的持有者。从2季度GDP增速以及其他经济数据看，美国经济复苏并没有想象中的强劲。有鉴于此，美联储有 可能会不断推迟退出宽松货币政策的时间点。

A股和港股都大幅反弹。因美联储维持0利率，美股上涨。Delta病毒在美国和英国造成死亡病例的抬升。英国宣布全部接种疫苗的欧美国家人员无需隔离。英国因限制海外游客，每天承担的经济损失达到6.39亿英镑。

It might be challenging for the Federal Reserve to exit from quantitative easing policy (QE). The 2nd quarter GDP annualized growth rate in the US came in at 6.8%, though higher than 6.3% in the 1st quarter but significantly lower than 8.4% market expected. The initial jobless claim last week was 400,000, higher than 380,000 expected too. In the meantime the 10-year treasury yield, which is considered as the terminal rate of Fed fund rate, came down to 1.264%. Traders don’t see the Fed repeating the 2015-2018 hiking cycle, which brought the policy rate band to 2.25%-2.50% in December 2018, and a peak 10-year rate of 3.2% in November 2018. The US government debt is close to US$30 trillion. Its GDP is atUS$20 trillion and could grow at 2-3% annually, meaning that the incremental value of GDP is US$40-60 million. This implies that the Fed fund rate should not be higher than 2%. Otherwise the US can not repay interest of its government debt, not to mention principal. The Bank of America forecast 10y rates at 1.9% at the end of 2021 but with downside risk. In 2013 the US gradually exited from QE that began from 2008 global financial crises due to its strong economic growth and becomes the first nation that successfully exited QE in history. Economy would become reliant on QE. Hence, if exiting it a nation would risk bubble burst and economic growth slowing down. Take the example of Japan it can not exit QE due to weak economic growth and has to pump liquidity into the economy again and again. The Bank of Japan has become the largest holder of Japanese stocks. The Federal Reserve might face the same challenges if the US economy can not grow robustly.

Both A-share and HK stocks rebounded strongly. Chinext Index in A-share and Tech Index in HK led the rally. The US stocks rose to record high as the Fed kept zero interest rate policy. Delta variant has caused death cases to rise in both the US and UK. Despite this, the UK government announced that it would not require those fully vaccinated from the US and Europe to be quarantined. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

外资对中国市场的态度不一。巴伦周刊刊发文章指出，近期中国政府对科技和教培公司的整治对股市构成沉重打击，明晟中国市场指数从2月份高点下跌了30%。海外投资人还担心中美关系可能在未来6-12个月对股市构成更大风险。中国政府有可能出台的不可靠实体清单会进一步恶化中美关系。鉴于中美关系不确定性以及对中国政府有可能出台更多打击个别行业的政策，外资在衡量股价的安全边际是多少。瑞银全球财富管理部门的首席策略师认为机构投资者在评估当前中国政府对科技和教培行业的政策风险，这可能会需要几周的时间。他倾向认为机构投资者在评估结束后会清仓中国股票，因而股市仍有下行风险，当前并不是抄底的好时机。但是需关注下面三种情况是否能够推动股市上行。一个是7月底的政治局经济工作会议；第二个是如果中国经济增速放慢，则政府可能会转而刺激经济，政策风险将会降低；第三个是中美关系能否短期内大幅改善。摩根大通私人银行的策略分析师相对更看好A股，因为A股没有互联网平台公司上市，而且外资持股比例相对较低，外资流出的冲击相对较小。他认为碳中和中国本地化的政策取向会使A股上市公司受益。摩根大通还将中国政府与韩国政府从1980年打击课外培训进行对比。因为补课需求仍然存在，之后韩国政府放松了相关的政策。当前无法预知中国政策的下一步走向。随着A股和港股市场的大跌，人民币和港币汇率都大幅回落。人民币兑美元汇率截止周二亚洲交易时间收盘较上周五下跌1%，周三有所恢复。港币兑美元汇率也下跌到4月以来的新低--7.7849。瑞穗银行认为人民币汇率将会在双向波动中趋势走软。据彭博社报道，中国证监会周三召集国际投行中国区负责人开会，传达针对教培和互联网平台的政策不会外溢到其他行业。中国资本市场是全球资本市场的有机组成部分，中国不会寻求与全球资本市场脱钩，特别是与美国市场。

港股反弹，A股小幅下跌。港股前期备受打击的医药、教培、物业管理板块大幅反弹。A股申万28个行业中6个上涨，医药、食品饮料、银行板块涨幅领先。美联储7月议息会议结束，美联储主席鲍威尔认为经济复苏强劲，但还没到削减债券购买的时候。美股涨跌不一，纳指上涨，道指和标普500小幅回落。

International investors view China stock market differently. Barron’s published an article, in which it said that international investors were cautious about China’s stocks after MSCI China Indexfell 30% from the high reached in Feb. this year. Investors also worry that tensions between China and the US might put another dent to the stock market in 6-12 months. They also worry that the unreliable entity list that Chinese government might bring up could hurt the capital markets further. The UBS Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer thought that international investors are in the process of valuing Chinese stocks under the new circumstances. But he believed that they might liquidate Chinese stocks after the evaluation and it is not the time to bottom-fish Chinese stocks. He also mentioned three catalysts for a good run of Chinese stocks. The first is the political bureau meeting at the end of July. The second is that if Chinese economy slows down the policy focus would shift to boost economic growth. The third is that the significant improvement of the Sino-US relationship. JP Morgan viewed Chinese stocks differently from UBS. It thought A-share would perform better than HK stocks as there are no platform internet companies listing in A-share and that A-share is less exposed to international funds. China's decarbonization and localization policy would benefit onshore market. With RMB and HK$ to US dollar depreciating,Mizuho Bank predicted that RMB would continue depreciation though in a volatile mode in the future. Bloomberg reported that Chinese Securities Regulatory Committee held a virtual meeting with major international banks on Wednesday. The key takeaways are that policies targeted education, property, fintech and anti-trust are for a brighter future of China. China is well aware that Chinese capital markets are integrally tied into global markets and none of the policies are meant to decouple from global markets, particularly the US markets.

HK stocks rebounded strongly while A-share fell slightly.The sectors falling sharply including tutoring and healthcare led the rebound. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

没有躺赢，更不能躺平。当公平成为资本市场的主旋律时，效率可能会受到一定的影响。这也是这两天港股互联网板块大跌的原因之一。公平首要目标是消除垄断，因此互联网平台首当其冲的成为整治对象。无论是腾讯还是美团、阿里巴巴都在各自的领域处于绝对垄断地位。这与美国的情况如出一辙。谷歌、亚马逊、脸书分别在搜索、电子商务和社交平台上的市场份额超过70%，处于绝对垄断地位。大科技公司处于垄断地位不仅压制了小公司的成长，而且有可能会阻碍创新。一个充满活力的经济体，显然不能让大企业躺赢。当然，也不能让年轻人因为经济压力巨大而躺平。我们的邻国日韩两国，年轻人都因为经济压力巨大而躺平，对社会和经济发展造成严重的负面影响。没有躺赢，意味着社会可以依靠创新而进步；没有躺平，就意味着经济活力可以长久的保持。

恐慌下跌之后反弹将随时展开。周二港股在互联网、教育板块和房地产公司的带动下一路走低。周一和周二两天合计，港股恒生12个行业中只有公用事业板块上涨，其余11个板块下跌。跌幅居前的是医疗保健、资讯科技、非必需消费和房地产，分别下跌17%、16.2%、9.1和8%，这几个板块分别对应着“新三座大山”和互联网平台。港股市场有外资持续流出，因担忧对个别板块可能再出针对性的政策，譬如医药行业等。A股申万28个行业周一和周二两个交易日累计全部下跌，跌幅居前的是食品饮料、建筑材料、休闲服务和房地产，分别下跌10%、7.9%、7.7%和7.7%。A股没有互联网平台公司上市，K12教育上市公司也较少，所以A股下跌的逻辑跟港股有所不同，主要是来自于抱团股的瓦解，食品饮料、建筑材料以及休闲服务都是抱团集中的行业。从估值看，港股估值已经到了较低的水平。恒生指数估值为1.1倍的静态市净率，处于2000年以来14%的分位。我们认为当前不该恐慌抛售，而应择机买入。A股抱团股虽有调整，但整体估值水平仍然较高，且未来可能会有持续调整的可能，因此不建议介入。一些不受政策影响的行业和个股估值已经到了历史较低水平，在这些低估值的板块中寻找长线投资机会可能是A股当下更好的选择。

Big companies should not make money effortless. Fairness has replaced efficiency to be the top goal in stock market. This has a big impact on platform technology companies. China has been facedwith the same situation as the US where big tech firms including Facebook,Amazon and Google taking absolute monopolistic position in social platform,e-commerce and search sector respectively. This has proved to make small technology companies hard to grow up and hamper innovation. And under the heavy living pressure young people have given up all efforts to make life better. This would also have big negative impact on social progress and economic development from what happens in Japan and South Korea. As such it is necessary to make policy change for a brighter future in China.

The rebound of A-share and HK stocks could come at any time.Both HK and A-share fell sharply over Monday and Tuesday. Only 1 sector rose in HK during these two trading days, which is utilities.Healthcare, tech, discretionary consumption and property sector fell the most at 17%, 16.2%, 9.1% and 8% respectively. International investors sell stocks in these sectors, worrying that more policy that target some sectors could come out. There are no platform technology companies and K12 education companies listed in A-share.The falling of A-share over the last two trading days is mainly caused by selling pressure of group-holding stocks. Food and beverage, construction material, leisure service and property sector fell the most in A-share at 10%, 7.9%, 7.7% and 7.7% respectively. Apart from property sector the other three sectors are where group-holding stocks concentrate. Hang Seng Index is now valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-book ratio 1.1x, which put it at 14% percentile since 2000. In A-share some sectors also valued at historical low levels. Given the low valuation levels it should be a good timing to buy stocks in these sectors. Group-holding stocks,although falling sharply, are still valued at high levels. They might continue to fall in the future. Hence, it might not be a good time to bottom fish these stocks.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。

看估值，看估值，看估值。周一A股和港股大跌，教育培训和房地产板块下跌应是意料之中。让人想不到的是白酒板块居然跌幅居前，白酒指数当日下跌7.22%。很多人认为白酒基本面良好，暴跌没有理由。上周公布的公募基金二季报显示：虽然食品饮料还是公募基金配置最大的一个板块，截止2季度末公募基金配置比例为16.74%，但也是减仓幅度最大的一个板块。二季度公募基金在食品饮料板块减仓幅度达到2.12个百分点。其中中小公募基金减仓食品饮料的幅度最大，规模较大的基金减仓幅度较小，真正体现了“船大难掉头，船小好调头”。基金二季报披露出来的信号就是抱团已经瓦解，而股价还没有大跌主要是时机未到。周一股价大跌白酒等板块大跌，一个催化剂就是来自对政策的担忧。白酒板块过去几年表现靓丽，资本介入程度也较深。有些上市公司依靠转型白酒而实现了“乌鸡变凤凰”。资本介入往往意味着泡沫较大。看某知名白酒股，即使已经从高点下跌了31%，其静态市盈率仍高达47.7倍。白酒板块整体静态市盈率为48.5倍，处在历史上92.3%的分位。估值仍然处在较高水平也说明目前并不是抄底的好时机。水井坊的二季报也是引爆板块暴跌的一个推手。作为酱香型白酒的一个代表，水井坊二季度净利润为负，主要因为费用投放过高导致。这也意味着白酒行业内部竞争的加剧。估值高叠加基本面恶化导致板块大跌。其他如医美、CXO等板块的下跌也有类似的逻辑。在年初买入这些热门板块的投资人很可能都站在了山岗上。归根结底，投资还是要看估值的，也没有可以持有一辈子的股票。即使有，也需要历经波折的。如何避免站在山岗上呢？一方面，在买入股票时就要关注估值。正如我们之前多次指出的，没有企业能够长期保持盈利的高速增长。以短期的盈利高增长而给予股票高估值，这本身就是一种风险。另一方面，要关注行业和个股的基本面变化。一旦基本面拐点发生，股价就要掉头向下了。

港股跌幅大于A股。在互联网、房地产和教育板块的带领下，港股周一大跌。博彩板块跌幅也较大，应该跟疫情相关。南京疫情持续扩散，珠海等地又发现新的病例。这波疫情对3季度经济增长恐怕会带来一定的冲击。

How to avoid being the last buyers of stocks? On Monday after-school training and property sector in A-share fell sharply due to policy impact. Yet spirit sector fell even more than these two sectors. The spirit index fell 7.2%, the worst performing index in A-share. Some investors thought that the fundamentals of spirit sector were solid and did not understand why the sector fell so much. The 2nd quarter report of mutual funds revealed that food and beverage sector, which spirit sector belongs to, remained as the largest holding for mutual funds. But it was also the largest sector that mutual funds cut exposure. In the 2ndquarter mutual funds cut 2.7 percentage point of food and beverage holdings. Most of the cut should be from spirits sector as this sector attracts the most mutual funds in A-share. And the bigger the funds are, the less exposure they cut; the smaller the funds are, the more exposure they cut. This means that spirit sector is no longer a group-holding one with so many funds exiting from the sector.Stocks would go lower with catalysts. On Monday one concern that market had about the spirit sector is that there is so much money flowing into this sector both in primary and secondary market. Hence, the sector has been in bubbles.Take the example of a famous spirit stock: it is still valued at 47.7x trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) even after falling 31% from its peak reached earlier this year. The spirit sector is valued at 48.5x TTW PE and at 92.5% percentile in the past 10 years. Given such high valuation levels it is not a good timing to bottom fish the sector right now. In summary investors should learn about the valuation level of a stock before buying it. It could be a risk to buy a high-valued stock just because the earnings growth of the company is fast. A company can not grow its earnings at a fast pace for a very long time. Once its earnings growth slows down valuation would also come down. 

HK stocks fell more than A-share.One reason could be that pandemic from Nanjing has spread to other parts of China.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。