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股市大跌之后外资怎么看?
来源:枫瑞资产 枫瑞视点
日期:2021-07-29

外资对中国市场的态度不一。巴伦周刊刊发文章指出,近期中国政府对科技和教培公司的整治对股市构成沉重打击,明晟中国市场指数从2月份高点下跌了30%。海外投资人还担心中美关系可能在未来6-12个月对股市构成更大风险。中国政府有可能出台的不可靠实体清单会进一步恶化中美关系。鉴于中美关系不确定性以及对中国政府有可能出台更多打击个别行业的政策,外资在衡量股价的安全边际是多少。瑞银全球财富管理部门的首席策略师认为机构投资者在评估当前中国政府对科技和教培行业的政策风险,这可能会需要几周的时间。他倾向认为机构投资者在评估结束后会清仓中国股票,因而股市仍有下行风险,当前并不是抄底的好时机。但是需关注下面三种情况是否能够推动股市上行。一个是7月底的政治局经济工作会议;第二个是如果中国经济增速放慢,则政府可能会转而刺激经济,政策风险将会降低;第三个是中美关系能否短期内大幅改善。摩根大通私人银行的策略分析师相对更看好A股,因为A股没有互联网平台公司上市,而且外资持股比例相对较低,外资流出的冲击相对较小。他认为碳中和中国本地化的政策取向会使A股上市公司受益。摩根大通还将中国政府与韩国政府从1980年打击课外培训进行对比。因为补课需求仍然存在,之后韩国政府放松了相关的政策。当前无法预知中国政策的下一步走向。随着A股和港股市场的大跌,人民币和港币汇率都大幅回落。人民币兑美元汇率截止周二亚洲交易时间收盘较上周五下跌1%,周三有所恢复。港币兑美元汇率也下跌到4月以来的新低--7.7849。瑞穗银行认为人民币汇率将会在双向波动中趋势走软。据彭博社报道,中国证监会周三召集国际投行中国区负责人开会,传达针对教培和互联网平台的政策不会外溢到其他行业。中国资本市场是全球资本市场的有机组成部分,中国不会寻求与全球资本市场脱钩,特别是与美国市场。

港股反弹,A股小幅下跌。港股前期备受打击的医药、教培、物业管理板块大幅反弹。A股申万28个行业中6个上涨,医药、食品饮料、银行板块涨幅领先。美联储7月议息会议结束,美联储主席鲍威尔认为经济复苏强劲,但还没到削减债券购买的时候。美股涨跌不一,纳指上涨,道指和标普500小幅回落。

International investors view China stock market differently. Barron’s published an article, in which it said that international investors were cautious about China’s stocks after MSCI China Indexfell 30% from the high reached in Feb. this year. Investors also worry that tensions between China and the US might put another dent to the stock market in 6-12 months. They also worry that the unreliable entity list that Chinese government might bring up could hurt the capital markets further. The UBS Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer thought that international investors are in the process of valuing Chinese stocks under the new circumstances. But he believed that they might liquidate Chinese stocks after the evaluation and it is not the time to bottom-fish Chinese stocks. He also mentioned three catalysts for a good run of Chinese stocks. The first is the political bureau meeting at the end of July. The second is that if Chinese economy slows down the policy focus would shift to boost economic growth. The third is that the significant improvement of the Sino-US relationship. JP Morgan viewed Chinese stocks differently from UBS. It thought A-share would perform better than HK stocks as there are no platform internet companies listing in A-share and that A-share is less exposed to international funds. China's decarbonization and localization policy would benefit onshore market. With RMB and HK$ to US dollar depreciating,Mizuho Bank predicted that RMB would continue depreciation though in a volatile mode in the future. Bloomberg reported that Chinese Securities Regulatory Committee held a virtual meeting with major international banks on Wednesday. The key takeaways are that policies targeted education, property, fintech and anti-trust are for a brighter future of China. China is well aware that Chinese capital markets are integrally tied into global markets and none of the policies are meant to decouple from global markets, particularly the US markets.

HK stocks rebounded strongly while A-share fell slightly.The sectors falling sharply including tutoring and healthcare led the rebound. 

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