美联储能否退出宽松货币政策？美国2季度GDP实际年化增速为6.4%，虽然较1季度的6.3%有所提高，但大幅低于市场预期的8.4%。同时，周四披露的上周初次申请失业救济人数为40万，这大概是疫情前初次申请失业救济人数的2倍，同时高于市场预期的38万人。虽然美联储在7月份的议息会议上明示将要考虑削减债券购买，但美国10年期国债收益率仍回落到1.264%的低水平。10年期国债收益率代表联邦基金利率的终极水平。该收益率回落意味着市场不相信美联储能够重复15-18年的加息周期。在这个加息周期中，美联储9次加息，最终联邦基金利率在2018年11月达到3.2%的高水平。美国当前的国债规模接近30万亿美金（下同），而每年的GDP增速在2-3%之间。20万亿GDP意味着每年的GDP增量仅为4000-6000亿。这就是说美国的联邦基金利率不能超过2%，否则美国经济增量连还利息都不够。从欧洲和日本的经验看，宽松货币政策一旦实施都很难退出。因为经济体对低利率产生依赖性之后，流动性收紧对经济体会造成较大风险。首先，利率上升会刺破资产泡沫。以美国为例，如果流动性收紧超出预期，股市泡沫就面临破灭的风险。美国2008年次贷危机爆发，也是因为加息刺破了房地产泡沫。其次，欧美等发达国家消费占GDP比重较高，通常在70-80%,而消费信贷是支撑经济的一个重要工具。如果利率上升，对消费不利，进而阻碍GDP增速。美国2008年金融危机发生后开始实行宽松的货币政策。2015年开始退出宽松货币政策，主要是因为美国经济增速强劲，也使美国成为唯一一个能够退出宽松货币政策的发达国家。而日本实行了一轮又一轮的宽松货币政策，经济始终没有较好表现，无奈只能继续宽松。日本央行成为日本股票市场最大的持有者。从2季度GDP增速以及其他经济数据看，美国经济复苏并没有想象中的强劲。有鉴于此，美联储有 可能会不断推迟退出宽松货币政策的时间点。

A股和港股都大幅反弹。因美联储维持0利率，美股上涨。Delta病毒在美国和英国造成死亡病例的抬升。英国宣布全部接种疫苗的欧美国家人员无需隔离。英国因限制海外游客，每天承担的经济损失达到6.39亿英镑。

It might be challenging for the Federal Reserve to exit from quantitative easing policy (QE). The 2nd quarter GDP annualized growth rate in the US came in at 6.8%, though higher than 6.3% in the 1st quarter but significantly lower than 8.4% market expected. The initial jobless claim last week was 400,000, higher than 380,000 expected too. In the meantime the 10-year treasury yield, which is considered as the terminal rate of Fed fund rate, came down to 1.264%. Traders don’t see the Fed repeating the 2015-2018 hiking cycle, which brought the policy rate band to 2.25%-2.50% in December 2018, and a peak 10-year rate of 3.2% in November 2018. The US government debt is close to US$30 trillion. Its GDP is atUS$20 trillion and could grow at 2-3% annually, meaning that the incremental value of GDP is US$40-60 million. This implies that the Fed fund rate should not be higher than 2%. Otherwise the US can not repay interest of its government debt, not to mention principal. The Bank of America forecast 10y rates at 1.9% at the end of 2021 but with downside risk. In 2013 the US gradually exited from QE that began from 2008 global financial crises due to its strong economic growth and becomes the first nation that successfully exited QE in history. Economy would become reliant on QE. Hence, if exiting it a nation would risk bubble burst and economic growth slowing down. Take the example of Japan it can not exit QE due to weak economic growth and has to pump liquidity into the economy again and again. The Bank of Japan has become the largest holder of Japanese stocks. The Federal Reserve might face the same challenges if the US economy can not grow robustly.

Both A-share and HK stocks rebounded strongly. Chinext Index in A-share and Tech Index in HK led the rally. The US stocks rose to record high as the Fed kept zero interest rate policy. Delta variant has caused death cases to rise in both the US and UK. Despite this, the UK government announced that it would not require those fully vaccinated from the US and Europe to be quarantined. 

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