股市里没有永远的神。近期白酒板块大幅下跌，引发投资人的热议。我们之前曾多次在枫瑞视点微信公众号中讨论过这一板块，具体请参见股票的定价不能建立在遥远的未来、A股市场的割裂等。在某卖方上调某著名消费股目标价的时候，分析了牛市中卖方分析师的作用。我们一直想传达的是：投资中最重要的就是盈利和估值的匹配。市场火热的时候，投资人通常都关注趋势不关注估值。这些投资人很容易在趋势逆转的时候，产品业绩受到冲击。有投资人问追逐成长股难道不是一个很好的投资策略吗？确实，至少在过去十年，成长股策略是远远跑赢价值股的。一个典型的例子就是作为股神的巴菲特，近些年来收益率较低，与其坚守价值股而没有配置科技成长股有很大的关系。但是，成长股有成长股的烦恼。一个就是快速成长的时间不会是永久的。通常而言，一家公司能有几年的高增长就是很好的公司了。其次，由于投资人都喜欢成长股，估值一般都比较高。尤其2008年金融危机以来，成长股的估值远远高于价值股。这是由于2008年金融危机以来，全球经济低速成长，成长股变得很稀缺有很大关系。但是，今年情况发生了逆转。很多周期股的业绩增速都大超预期，而且估值都很低。这对传统的消费医药成长股构成了冲击。今年消费医药行业业绩增速有所放缓，抱团基金逐渐减仓这些板块，有的加仓到周期性行业上，有的选择其他成长赛道。所以，股市里没有一直涨的股票，也没有永远的神。时刻对市场保持敬畏。

疫情下中美经济面临下行风险。中国7月官方制造业采购经理人指数回落，美经济2季度增速低于预期。全球Delta 病毒肆虐，预计对3季度经济增长可能造成一定冲击。从周期来看，中国经济已经进入库存周期的下行期，美国经济有可能在3季度进入库存周期下行期。中央政治局工作会议释放出的政策信号对经济友好，下半年财政政策应偏积极，4季度随着经济下行压力加大，货币政策有进一步放松可能。

上周（ 下同）A股和港股领跌全球。上证指数、深成指和恒生指数分别下跌4.98%、4.3%和3.69%。港股通净流出227亿人民币，创下港股通开通以来的最大周度净流出。这一方面与港股大跌有关，另一方面港股自8月1日上调交易印花税。

There is no the invincible in stock markets. With the broad market declining that liquor sector fell more than any other sector has provoked a lot of discussion. We have discussed liquor in our official wechat “Maple Insights” in “Stocks should not be valued based on a far future”, “The divergence in A-share” and “What a sell-side analyst usually does in a bull market”. We want to convey the idea that a stock should be valued in line with its earnings growth rate. However, in a bull market few investors pay attention to valuation as the upward trend seems to last forever. As such when the trend reverses investors would suffer big losses. From 2008 global financial crises global economy was in low growth rate mode. High growth has become a scarcity and growth stocks are valued at an extreme level. Yet since the pandemic the low-valued cyclical sectors has seen earnings growth accelerate. Also in 2021 consumption and healthcare stocks saw their growth rate come down. As a result those funds huddled in these two sectors flied away. They either put their money in cyclical sectors or other growth sectors. So no stocks can rise forever. We should pay attention to valuation when investing in a stock and always remain humble in the stock market.  

Delta variant poses downside risk to global economic growth.  China July official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index showed that economy was slowing down. Moreover, Delta variant caused new cases to surge both at home and abroad. China has seen inventory cycle to begin a downward trend in March while the US is still waiting for the peak of its economy, which might come in 3Q2021. Yet China’s fiscal policy might become more accommodative in 2H2021. And if economy faces more challenges in 4Q2021 monetary policy could become more easing, for example, by cutting interest rate. Last week A-share and HK stocks fell the most among the global 16 major indexes. HK-connect saw the largest weekly net outflow since it began both due to the stock market tumble last week and that HK will raise stamp duty for stock trading from August 1st . 

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