股价见顶的信号之一。在《投资者的未来》一书中，沃顿商学院教授杰里米·西格尔描写了他在网络泡沫破灭之前因发表了一篇质疑网络股估值的文章而遭受的种种质疑。他这篇文章在1999年4月19日发表于华尔街日报，所举的例子是美国在线。美国在线在2000年至2009年期间是美国时代华纳的子公司，是著名的因特网服务提供商。在2000年美国在线和时代华纳宣布合并，2001年1月11日该交易被联邦贸易委员会证实。该公司在西格尔发表文章时静态市盈率为700倍，动态市盈率450倍，市值高达2000亿美金。对于如此高的估值，美林的网络股票分析师亨利·布洛杰特认为这是有经典的衡量标准作为依据的。西格尔却认为他是在愚弄大众，他认为“为一家科技类先锋公司定价所需使用的工具和为IBM即过去的其他科技巨人定价所使用的工具并没有什么区别”。西格尔的文章引发了投资人的强烈不满。一些投资人认为他对先进的商务模式一无所知，在识别机遇方面的水平等同于幼儿。还有一些投资人认为沃顿商学院应该赶快让他退休，否则商学院的名誉将受到损害。在遭遇这一切之后，西格尔意识到投资人爱上了他们所投资的股票，这其实也是股价见顶的信号之一。通常在股价接近或达到泡沫时期，投资人通常不会理性地看待股票，他们相信这次不一样。但结果往往是泡沫破裂。周末爆出的A股半导体行业卖方分析师和实业界人士的争论其实是西格尔所遭遇的一切的翻版。历史不会重复，但会踏着同样的韵脚。当前A股的部分行业的股票估值也达到了几百倍的市盈率，而投资人支付这么高的估值的理由也是这次不一样。但是，历史证明，这次不一样是投资中最昂贵的一句话。美国在线在2015年被威瑞森通信收购，收购价格为45亿美金，估值较2000年高点下跌98%。

A股巨量反弹，港股缩量上涨。A股申万28个行业中仅有钢铁、采掘和休闲服务板块下跌，建筑材料、汽车和国防军工板块领涨。港股12个行业中，只有公用事业行业下跌，原材料、工业和电讯行业领涨。美股尾盘跳水，因投资人担忧疫情加剧影响经济复苏。10年期国债收益率下跌到1.17%。

A sign that stock price is peaking. Jeremy Siegel described what happened to him after he published an article on Wall Street Journal on April 19th 1999 about the high valuation of internet stocks. He cited American Online as an example. American Online is an internet provider and combined with Time Warner in 2001. The stock was valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 700x and forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio 450x. Its market cap reached US$200billion at that time. The Merrill Lynch internet analyst Henry Blodget said that American Online was valued on classic valuation metric. Yet Siegel believed that he was just making a fool of common investors and insisted that there would be no major differences of valuation metric for a pioneer technology company such as American online and the past tech giant such as IBM. Siegel then suffered critics from many investors. Some sent email to tell him that he did not have the capabilities to understand new technology. Some asked Wharton School to let Siegel retire as soon as possible so that he would not hurt the reputation of the school. What happened to Siegel is very similar to what happened to a tech guy from a leading semiconductor company over the past weekend. He was also criticized by a sell-side analyst as knowing little about semiconductor sector. According to Siegel this usually means that investors fall in love with the stocks they invest. This is one of the signs that stock price is peaking. Currently in A-share there are also companies in semiconductor and other sectors valued at an extreme level.Investors believe that this time it is different, which turns out to be the most expensive words for investors. American Online was acquired by Verizon in 2015 at a price of US$4.5 billion, down 98% from its peak valuation in 1999.

A-share rallied with big trading volume while HK stocks rose with contracted volume. The US stocks dived at the final trading hour as investors were concerned that Delta variant could hamper economic recovery. The US 10-year treasury yield fell to 1.17% and oil prices fell sharply as well. 

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