投资和投机。投资和投机本质的区别其实并不大。有人认为持有时间短的就是投机，持有时间长的是投资。似乎是专门针对这个不太明显的区别，A股市场有一个词叫做价值投机，就是指虽然是长时间持有股票，但却是在股价泡沫中的坚持持有。投机其实是一个中性词，在英文中的对应词汇“speculation”没有任何贬义。那为什么在国内明明是投机，偏要说成是投资呢。一方面，国内的投机有贬义含义；另一方面，投资更像是一个高大上的事业，而投机更像是散户就可以做的事情。对机构投资者来说，跟散户一样投机至少显得水平不太高。所以，经常能看到买了几百倍市盈率股票的基金经理大谈价值投资，其实所谈的跟价值投资一点关系也没有。价值投资两个基本要素：一个是坚实的基本面，一个是低估值。趋势易寻，但基本面好且估值又便宜的股票不好找。但对于坚持价值投资的基金经理，本职工作就是寻找这些股票。彼得·林奇在富达工作13年，13年如一日，从早到晚大量阅读各种研究报告、公司的定期报告，就是为了找到这样的股票。查理·芒格说过投资从来都不是容易的。避难趋易也是人之常情。买高估值股票的基金经理其实本质上是趋势投资者，或者说是价值投机的践行者。基金经理在解释时会说对公司基本面有信仰，可以看得很远，至于是10年后还是30年后都不重要。重要的是当前估值虽然很高，但还能上涨，能为投资人赚钱；重要的是客户很满意。如果坚持了价值投资，但赚不到钱，那就很难向客户交代了。最近客户恨不得按手买入、建议抄作业的报道流传甚广。A股市场作为一个趋势市场，投机赚钱相对容易。能够帮助客户赚钱的投机有什么不好吗？当然没有。靠投机赚钱的李默弗尔曾经威震华尔街，只要及时收手就好。

A股涨跌不一。上证指数上涨，而创业板指下跌。因恒大债务问题得以解决，A股和港股房地产板块大幅上涨。美股道指和标普500再创新高，7月消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%，高于预期的5.3%，但除去食品和能源的核心消费者价格指数环比6月份只上涨了0.3%，预期为0.4%。二手车价格只上涨了0.2%，而6月份上涨了10%。意味着通胀很可能就是暂时的，联储在收缩流动性上并没有落后于通胀。

About investment and speculation. There is no stark difference between investment and speculation.Some deems that investment means a longer holding period while speculation means a rather short holding period. A new word invented in A-share, which seems to counter this difference. It is called investment speculation, which refers to those investors who hold stocks for a long time but in bubbles. Value investment requires two factors: one is solid fundamental, the other is low valuation. Some think that it is challenging to find companies with solid fundamental and low valuation. For a portfolio manager it is his or her job to do this. Peter Lynch,the famous investor, read companies’ quarterly reports and annual reports as well as analysts’ research notes day by day for 13 years when he worked at Fidelity. Investment is never easy, as Charlie Munger said. It is also natural for a portfolio manager to seek the easy way to do investment, such as following the trend. In A-share it actually is easier to make money by following trends.The portfolio manager can still talk about value investment despite high valuation. Their excuse is that they have a firm belief in the company’s fundamentals and can hold the stock for a long time. Whether the stock’s valuation can come down in 3 years or 10 years is not that important. The most important is that they can help clients make money. Livermore in “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” made a lot of money for clients. This means that speculation is just a tool for making money. If he could stop losses earlier the results would be good.

A-share was mixed on Wednesday. Shanghai Composite Index rose while Chinext Index fell. It was reported that government is helping China Evergrande Group to relieve its debt burden. This news boosted property stocks in both A-share and HK market. The US July CPI grew 5.4% year-on-year, higher than 5.3% expected. Yet core CPI, which excluded food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-on-month versus 0.4% expected. The used vehicle price, which rose 10% in June, only rose 0.2% in July. This supports Fed’s view that inflation is transitory.

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