壹 白酒股的逻辑发生改变

      周四各种茅集中崩盘，崩盘的背后是逻辑的变化。以某著名白酒公司为例，其酒的零售价格今年以来持续上涨，近期已达到3000元每瓶，但股价从2季度开始与持续上涨的酒价背离。这背后就是担忧老百姓的消费能力不足以支撑这么高的酒价。因此，当周四有媒体报道其批发价调降200元时，其实是契合了市场的担忧。同时，由于该酒的开瓶率一直较低，意味着很多酒其实并没有被消费，而是储存起来了。因此当价格下跌时，这些储存起来的酒很有可能出现在市场中，加剧价格的下跌。之前上涨的逻辑是酒价持续上涨，由于供给受限，因而需求无法得到有效满足。下跌的逻辑变成了价格越跌，供应越多。

      贰 医药股的逻辑

     而医药茅的崩塌也是逻辑发生了变化。以某著名创新药企业为例。其股价上涨的时候市场认为其管线足以支撑起比当前大几倍的市值，估值应参照美股辉瑞的市值。但当集采失利后，市场发现创新药再好，也需要降价进入集采才能获得较高的市场份额。药茅下跌的时候开始跟辉瑞比市盈率，发现辉瑞长期以来也就20倍左右的市盈率。

     叁 实质是预期变了

     为什们上涨时一套逻辑而下跌时又一套逻辑呢？无论对于白酒还是医药，其实这些所谓的好赛道都存在风险，只不过当市场上涨的时候，投资人要么视而不见，要么就是选择性的忽略掉这些风险。因此，股价只反应了最乐观的预期。而当股价下跌时，市场才猛然发现原来风险这么多，而且随着股价越跌越深，风险不但没有减少，反而一个又一个新的风险冒出来。其实，也是因为悲观预期开始后，风险逐渐地被注意到了。所以，投资需要理性判断，不能过度乐观也不宜过度悲观。不过，一般人都很难做到这一点。所以，投资最终就是挑战自己。

      肆 投资者有可能对经济增长过于悲观

     衡量经济数据是高于预期或者低于预期的程度的花旗意外经济指数近期达到-37。这是疫情发生以来首次跌入负区间。这主要是因为Delta病毒。市场担心Delta病毒将加剧通胀，进而影响消费需求。经济学家对美国经济2021年的增长预测从6月份的6.5%下调为6%。相应地，由于Delta病毒的冲击，经济学家也下调了对中国经济增速的预期。但好消息是，经济意外指数已经处在历史上20%的分位，即80%的时间该指数都高于当前水平。这意味着未来的经济数据大概率会超预期。周五杰克森年会将在线上举行，市场关注美联储任何关于收缩债券购买计划的细节。年会前市场情绪谨慎，全球股市普跌。

I. Logic behind the liquor stock

On Thursday good-track stocks fell sharply, reflecting that logic has changed for these stocks. Take the example of a famous spirit stock, its liquor price rose from the beginning of this year to RMB 3000 per bottle recently. Yet its stock prices went south after Chinese New Year festival as market was concerned that consumption volume would become less due to the high liquor price. Moreover, given that many bottles of the liquor are not consumed but stocked for prices increase, they would come into the market with liquor prices coming down. When stock prices rose, the logic is that its supply was limited and liquor prices could rise continuously. And when stock prices fell, more and more supply would come out.

II. An example of a pharmaceutical company

A famous innovative pharmaceutical company was faced with the same dilemma. When its stock price was going up, market expected that its strong pipeline of innovative drugs would support a much bigger market cap if taking Pfizer as valuation benchmark. But after its drugs failed to enter the national centralized purchase list market found that innovative drugs should not be given such a high valuation. Then compared with the 20x price-to-earnings ratio of Pfizer the pharmaceutical company was highly valued. 

III. Expectation has changed

In fact, whether in the case of the liquor company or the pharmaceutical company the risks mentioned above have alwaysbeen there. But when the stock prices are rising market omit them. And when stock prices fell, market began to pay attention to these risks. So when investing it is wise to remain not so optimistic and pessimistic.

IV. Market might be over-concerned about economic growth prospects

Due to Delta variant economists downgraded the US GDP growth rate in 2021 from 6.5% to 6%. China’s GDP growth rate in 2021 was also downgraded by economists. But The Citi Economic Surprise Index, a score that measures the degree to which economic data is beating or missing estimates, has fallen into negative territory for the first time since pandemic. This implies that market might be over-concerned about economic growth prospects. Global markets were cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole annual meeting, which would take place on Friday virtually. 

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