壹 低估值板块

       我们认为低估值板块四季度的机会更大一些。而一些低估值板块恰好也是年初至今大幅落后的板块。A股申万28个行业中年初至今11个上涨，16个下跌, 一个持平。涨幅居前的是采掘、钢铁、电气设备、有色和化工，都是周期股或与新能源相关的板块。跌幅居前的板块为家用电器、非银金融、传媒、农林牧渔、食品饮料和房地产。这些板块或受到房地产政策影响，如房地产和家用电器，或者是因基本面变差而遭到抛弃，如传媒、非银金融和农林牧渔，或者是抱团股瓦解，如食品饮料。从估值看，银行、建筑装饰和房地产静态市净率最低，分别为0.63、0.92和0.94倍；这三个板块的静态市盈率也是最低的，分别为6.3、8.7和7.7倍。银行板块年初至今下跌3.9%，建筑装饰板块涨幅为9.6%。四季度在经济下行压力加大和政策可能出台的背景下，这些低估值板块会更加受益于政策，应该会有较好表现。

       贰 高估值板块

       对于高估值的板块，我们认为还是要判断未来的业绩增速。之所以估值高就是预期未来的盈利增速会较高。如果盈利增速不达预期，则股价就会如上面提到的基本面变差的板块持续下跌。我们在研究中也发现A股还有很多个股盈利增速较好，估值也都处于历史低位，值得配置。

       叁 港股

       关于港股，我们之前在港股到底有多惨？一文中指出，港股因欧美机构投资者占市场的相对主导地位，受影响的因素较多。港股整体估值处在历史低位。以恒生指数的静态市净率为1.1倍，处在2002年以来15.7%的分位；而恒生国企指数的静态市净率也是1.1倍，处在2002年以来34%的分位。随着中美关系有所好转，港股将更加受益。

       伍 周期股

       对于周期股，要看商品价格在高位能够持续多长时间。如持续的时间足够长，则周期股的股价还会有较好表现。对比本次周期股和2008年周期股的涨幅。相比2008年，周期股的股价涨幅仍然落后于商品价格上涨的幅度。

        陆 市场普涨

        港股和欧美股市均大涨。周四因美国债务上限问题延期到12月初，市场一片欢腾。同时，美国周四发布的上周申请失业救济人数也好于预期。因为失业救济已经到期，人们被迫出来寻找工作。美10年期国债收益率上涨到1.57%，瑞银预计年底将会达到1.8%。市场关注周五美国股市开市前的9月非农就业报告。如报告符合预期，则美联储缩减债券购买计划将会如期进行。

I. Low-valued sectors  

We believe that low-valued stocks would have more upside potential compared with those high-valued ones in 4th quarter this year. Among the 28 sectors in A-share 11 sectors rose while the remaining 16 sectors fell and one sector was flat. The low-valued sectors include bank, property and construction and decoration, which rose -3.9%, 9.6% and -11.3% year-to-date. In 4thquarter China’s economy would see lower year-on-year growth rate. Market expects that supporting policies might come out at some point in 4th quarter.The low-valued sectors including bank, property and construction and decoration all benefit from the likely supporting policies and could perform well.

II. High-valued sectors 

For those high-valued sectors the key is to see whether their earnings growth can maintain at a high speed. The reason that they enjoy high valuation is due to that their earnings growth are expected to be high. If it turns out not to be the case then it would be disastrous for stock prices.

III.Cyclical sectors 

Cyclical sectors would also perform if commodity prices can be maintained at high levels. Compared with 2008 when the last super cycle took place, this time stock prices increased less than commodity prices. Hence, stocks might still have room to go up. 

IV. HK market 

HK market is valued at low levels. The trailing-twelve-month price-to-book value of both Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Enterprises Index was 1.1x, which put them at 15% and 33% percentile respectively from 2002. HK market is affected by a lot of factors. If Sino-US relationship could ease then HK market would benefit.

V. Global market rallied.

Market cheered the short-term debt ceiling deal in the US. Also the initial jobless claim last week in the US came in better than expected as people began to seek jobs actively. The non-farm payroll in September,which would be released on Friday before the US market opens, is the focus. A good non-farm payroll number would provide the green light for the Fed to take back liquidity. 10-year treasury yield continued to rise to 1.57%. The UBS predicted that it would reach 1.8% by the end of this year.

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