壹 今年前三季度财政和货币政策偏紧

      央行发布的《2021年第三季度货币政策报告》和10月份房地产企业开发贷数据似乎给希望政策宽松的投资人一些安慰。但是，市场上对是否会有持续的政策宽松以及是否会有由此而来的跨年行情有较大争议。因为宏观杠杆率在2020年为应对疫情而上升，今年无论财政政策还是货币政策都是偏紧的。

       贰 货币政策

      2021年前三季度货币政策力度指数为44.3，与上半年的44.4相比有所下降，与2020年同期的55.2相比明显偏小。货币政策力度指数的下降，主要是因为数量型货币政策工具收紧略有偏快，M2和社融存量同比增速都下降较快。

        叁 财政政策

        2021年前三季度财政政策力度指数为47.8，与一季度的46.1和上半年的46.7相比略有升高，这主要是因为前三季度的赤字率高于一季度和上半年的赤字率。但是，不管是与疫情之下的2020年相比，还是与疫情之前的2018年和2019年相比，2021年以来财政政策力度都相对偏小。从子指标来看，财政政策力度偏小主要是受到财政支出进度偏慢和财政收入增速相对偏快两方面因素的影响。

       肆 2018年底的跨年行情

      虽然4季度经济可能在3季度低基数基础上环比上行，但明年1、2季度的经济压力还比较大。因此，政府出台政策也会相机抉择。在政策支持下，股市的跨年行情也有可能。通过分析2018年10月到2019年4月份的市场反弹，我们发现有利好因素刺激的板块会持续走强。2018年10月到2018年4月，A股全部28个行业均取得正收益，其中涨幅居前的板块为农林牧渔、综合、计算机、通信和房地产；而涨幅居后的行业为银行、钢铁、采掘、公用事业和建筑装饰。上涨居前的板块估值在2018年10月都处在历史较低水平。农林牧渔板块的上涨主要来自生猪价格的上涨；综合板块则是其中的一些公司业绩持续超预期。而涨幅落后的行业钢铁和采掘是周期性行业，银行、公用事业和建筑装饰也是因为市场对经济的悲观预期。

      伍 当下买什么？ 

      因此，当下如果有跨年反弹行情，我们认为还是从景气度和估值两方面选择板块会比较稳妥。当下，处在历史估值较低水平的行业有医药、电子和轻工制造等板块。尽管经济可能走弱，这些低估值板块中有一些未来仍会保持景气度，值得配置。

I. Tight policies 

The 3Q2021 China Monetary Policy Report along with the news that loans to property developers grew month-on-month in October gave market signs that easing policies are on the way. While some doubt that this easing policy can sustain, others believe that government would continue to loosen monetary and fiscal policy. Well, that could be true. 

II. Monetary policy 

According to the People’s University of China in 9M2021 both monetary and fiscal policy in China were stringent. The monetary policy intensity index in 9M2021 was 44.3 versus 44.4 in 1H2021 and 55.2 in 2020 due to that the year-on-year growth rate slowed down for both M2 and Aggregate Social Financing. 

III. Fiscal policy 

Fiscal policy intensity index was 47.8 in 9M2021 versus 46.1 in 1Q2021 and 46.7 in 1H2021. But it was smaller than in 2020 and 2019 due to the slower fiscal expenditure and faster fiscal income. While 4Q2021 could see economy grow quarter-on-quarter due to the lower base in 3Q2021,economy in 1Q2022 and 2Q 2022 could be faced with challenges due to high base in 2021. Hence, we believe that easing policies could come out at appropriate timing.

IV. Sectors performance in late 2018 market rebound

We analyzed the rebound of A-share in late 2018 and early 2019 and found out that those sectors with low valuation and promising prospects outperformed. From October 19th 2018 to April 8th 2019 all of the 28 sectors in A-share rose. The top-performing sectors were farming and fishery, conglomerate, computer, telecommunication and property sector. For farming and fishery sector the rising swine prices gave it a strong boost. Conglomerate sector rallied due to that some stocks in the sector delivered earnings growth better than expected continuously. The sectors lagged behind included bank, mining, iron and steel, construction and decoration and utilities.These sectors, while being valued at low valuation levels, actually reflected the pessimism of market to the broad economy. Now pharmaceutical, electronic and light industrial sector etc are at their historical lows, among which some have a bright future despite the slowing economy.

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