壹 两家财务造假的公司

     近期因某家上市公司的财务欺诈导致投资人遭受严重损失。但在严刑峻法下，投资人的损失可以大部分获得赔偿。另外一家以预制膜起家的企业在2015年至2018年分别虚增利润总额23.81亿元、30.89亿元、39.74亿元和24.77亿元，四年累计虚增利润总额119.21亿元。扣除虚增利润，该公司连续四年净利润实际为负。该公司实际控制人锒铛入狱，而股票也在下跌近90%以后退市。投资人也遭受严重损失。

     贰 一个财务指标

     投资人应该非常关心如何回避这些造假的企业？我们通过研究发现有一个财务指标比较有效，就是营运资金占销售收入的比例。所谓营运资金就是应收账款+存货+预付账款减去应付账款+预收账款+合同负债。营运资金实质上是维持企业运营的生命线。只要有营运资金，企业就能够活下去。对于一些运营好的企业，比如有些在消费、计算机或者工程机械行业的企业，营运资金可能是负值。即企业只需要开动设备，就有供货商提供原材料，企业等生产出产品收回货款后再支付供货商的账款就可以。因此，这些企业的运营如同印钞机一般创造利润。但是，对于一些运营较差的企业，营运资金占销售收入的比例往往很高。

     叁 70%是个预警信号

     我们研究发现，无论是近期披露的造假企业还是前述以预制膜起家的企业，当营运资金占比提升到销售收入的70%的时候，企业的运营就难以为继了。这背后的道理就是一个企业如想创造一元钱的销售收入，需要投入7毛钱的营运资金。因为需要投入维持企业运营的资金太多了，因此，往往在这个财务指标达到70%之后就会爆出企业造假的消息。企业可以在三张财务报表上分别造假，但是很难在现金流上造假。而三张报表之间都存在勾稽关系，通过将资产负债表和利润表相结合，就比较容易发现问题。

     肆 美国债收益率上升

     A股上涨，港股下跌。钢铁板块涨幅居前。因铁矿石空头减少，铁矿石大幅上涨。港股下跌，因担忧美联储主席鲍威尔在第二个任期将会加紧回收流动性。周二美国10年期国债收益率上升到1.66%，投资人对此感到担忧，美国科技股继续调整。我们之前分析过，美国10年期国债收益率上涨空间是有限的，因美国当前的巨额债务。详情请见美联储能退出宽松货币政策吗？虽然美国总统拜登释放了5000万桶石油储备，但是美国石油协会认为这对市场的影响可能仅仅是短暂的，油价上涨。欧洲股市因疫情严重而承压。

I. Two companies that made financial fraud

Recently a listed company causedinvestors to incur big losses due to financial fraud. These investors could becompensated by the company’s owner, related managers and directors along withauditing firm and legal firm. Other investors are not that lucky. A listedcompany with its main business in precursor film increased its net profit falselyby RMB 2.381 billion, 3.089 billion, 3.974 billion and 2.477 billion respectivelyfrom 2015 to 2018. The aggregated net profit increased falsely was RMB 11.921billion.The owner of the company was sentenced to be in jail for years. The company’s stockwas delisted after it fell close to 90%. Its stock investorssuffered big losses.

II. A financial ratio

Sohow to check out whether a company is making financial fraud is very importantfor stock investors. We have found out a financial ratio which is likely to behelpful. It is working capital divided by sales in the same year. Workingcapital is the sum of account receivables, inventory and prepaid account minus thesum of account payable, deposit received and contract liability. The workingcapital is the life line of a company to some extent. As long as a company has moneyfor working capital, it can survive.

III. 70% is the threshold

Wefound out that if the ratio of working capital divided by sales in the sameyear reaches 70%, it would not be far from the point that the company wasrevealed financial fraud. This is true in both companies mentioned above. The 70%of the ratio means that a company has to invest RMB 0.7 for RMB 1 sales, whichis not sustainable. This financial ratio combines items in both balance sheetand income sheet. As items in the three financial sheets of a company has articulation,it is easier to find out problems if combining items in two or three sheets.

IV. The US 10-year treasury yield rose

A-share rose while HK stocks fell. Marketis concerned that in the second term the Fed chairman Powell would hasten withdrawingliquidity. The US 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.66% on Tuesday from 1.54% last Friday. Bank and energy stocks rose while tech stocks continue to fall for a second day.

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