壹 奥密克戎扰动市场

     新的新冠病毒变种奥密克戎上周五和周末吸引了市场的焦点。上周五，美股和欧股大跌。美股因感恩节交投清淡，市场波动加大。石油价格下跌超过10%，创下20个月以来最大单日跌幅。周日开盘的中东股市也随之大跌。而避险资产相对表现较好，如黄金保持价格平稳。根据中国知名防疫专家，这种新毒株是否会使当前的防疫屏障完全失效需要根据未来两周更多的数据和实验室数据才能精准判断。

     贰 对经济冲击应有限

     处在一个黑盒子里，基金经理们纷纷先卖出再问问题。我们认为市场反应的是最悲观的情景。经过近两年的时间，各国在应对疫情方面已经积累了很多经验，而且疫苗也发挥了很大作用。我们非医学专家，因此对疫情走势的判断还需听专业人士的看法。但是，从经济的角度看，即使当前重回2020年3月全球闭关锁国，对经济的冲击也要小于当时。因为经过疫情的不断反复，各国经济都基本调整到了应对疫情的状态。市场对新毒株会不会拖延美联储收回流动性的进程也十分关心。周五，期货市场已经从之前预期2022年三次加息缩减到两次。市场原本还预期在12月议息会议上美联储将宣布加快缩减债券购买进程。但如果新毒株持续带来不确定性，则美联储有可能会再耐心等一等。

     叁 对我国经济和股市影响

     就我国而言，因为我们在防疫上采取的严格清零策略一直都比较有效，预计新毒株和Delta一样对我国经济的冲击总体有限。但是，如果其他国家采取严格的闭关锁国政策，无疑会打击全球经济复苏的进程，进而影响我国外需的增速。A股和港股上周五均下跌，港股恒生指数跌幅较大，为9月20日以来的最大单日跌幅。我们认为外围市场调整对A股和港股的冲击应有限。年初至今，无论A股还是港股都是全球市场的落后者，当前整体的估值水平也较低。从10月份的工业企业利润数据看，我国经济在9月份的基础上有所恢复。但是，因房地产市场的压力，经济下行压力仍存。如果流动性能够改善，成长板块的表现会更好一些。

     肆 A股领涨全球

     A股领涨全球。上周上证指数和深成指是全球16个主要国家和地区指数中唯一取得正收益的两个指数，侧面反应我国的抗疫策略是最优的。俄罗斯、德国和法国领跌全球，印度和恒生指数次之。

I. Omicron

The new variant of COVID-19 Omicron caused global stock and commodity market to crash. Oil sank more than 10% and the Middle East stock index dropped 5% on Sunday. According to experts in epidemic prevention, it takes another two weeks to get the analysis of the new variant and then judge whether it can escape immune system completely.

II.The most pessimistic scenario

As information regarding Omicron is very limited, portfolio managers chose to sell first and then ask questions later. We deem that market is pricing in the most pessimistic scenario.Even if vaccines do not work on the new variant the hit to economy would be less than in March 2020. The reason is that companies have adapted to the pandemic and whatever comes out of this they have a playbook on how to deal with it. Moreover, investors are betting that the Federal Reserve to step in if needed. Market is now pricing in only two interest lifts in 2022 versus three before the news of Omicron. The Federal Reserve had been expected to hasten taper in December FOMC but now it was not expected to do so.

II.   Omicron would not hit our economy as hard as western peers

Last Friday both A-share and HK stocks fell. Yet we believe that Omicron would not hit China’s economy as hard as other nations due to the effective control measures of the pandemic in China. Moreover, the correction of international stock markets would not have a big impact on both A-share and HK stocks. In the first place, both markets lagged their global peers year-to-date. In the second place the two markets are valued at relatively low levels,meaning that they have priced in a lot of negatives including potential ones such as Omicron. While industrial profit in October grew strongly the economy is still faced with downward pressure due to that property sector is going down. At this point we think that more easing policy would come out and growth sectors would benefit from the policies more than value sectors.

IV. A-share performed the best last week

Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index rose last week, the only two indexes among the 16 global major stock indexes. 

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