壹 美联储拟加快缩减债券购买规模

     美联储主席鲍威尔在周二国会作证时指出应该把通胀暂时的这个词换成是持久的，并指出将会在12月14-15日的议息会议上讨论加快缩减债券购买。美股市场随之大跌。我们之前在枫瑞视点微信公众号中发表过多篇文章探讨通胀是否持续性以及美联储能否退出量化宽松的政策，包括《你在哪个阵营？美联储能退出宽松货币政策吗？市场不相信美联储能够退出宽松货币政策等。

     贰 奥密克戎对市场的冲击未知

     事实证明，通胀可能会较长时间保持在高位，这将会给美联储退出政策带来较大压力。从这个角度看，鲍威尔的突然鸽转鹰是可以理解的。只不过在奥密克戎压境的背景下，令市场有点难以接受。当然，在美联储本月议息会议之前，关于奥密克戎的情况可能会变得更清晰，包括当前疫苗是否能够应对该病毒以及传染性是否足以让全球重回到2020年3月的隔离状态中。如果奥密克戎能够比预期好，则美联储加快回收流动性是理所当然的。但是，回收流动性对美股的冲击也要不容小觑。

     叁 美股估值处在高位

     当前美股的估值处在历史高位。以美股市值比GDP这个股神巴菲特经常采用的指标看，现在的估值是215%，为历史上的最高水平。1929年，在市场崩盘之前股票市值对GDP的比例为100%。2000年，这个比值最高为150%。在新冠疫情发生之后，美股的估值一直处在较高水平，所以高估值不意味着股市调整。但是如果经济基本面变差，则股市将会有较大幅度的调整。所以，投资者一方面要关注奥密克戎的消息，另一方面就是关注美国经济是否有下行的压力。我们从库存周期判断，美国经济有可能在3季度达到此次复苏的高点，之后将会面临回调。如果此判断成立，则美国股市有可能会在近期就面临调整。

     肆 美国股票和国债收益率下跌

     港股和A股反弹。房地产、金融等价值板块涨幅领先，而光伏等赛道行业调整。因隆基宣布降低硅片价格，光伏产业链面临压力。美股开盘上涨，但随着在加利福尼亚发现第一例奥密克戎病例的消息传出，股市随之下跌，旅游股跌幅居前。该病例11月22日从南非回到美国，已打了两剂疫苗，当前症状温和，无需入院。美国防疫专家福喜指出该病毒更易于传播，发生疫苗逃逸。美国10年期国债收益率下跌到1.41%。

I. The Fed would discuss faster taper 

The Federal Reservechairman Powell said that inflation was not transient and that the Fed planned to discuss faster tapering on the upcoming FOMC on Dec. 14-15th. We have discussed inflation in previous articles published in our official wechat Maple Insight. Our conclusion is that inflation is persisting rather than transient. Amidst the rising risk from Omicron market is surprised that the Fedcould hasten tapering. According to pandemic experts it would take another two weeks for them to learn more about Omicron. By that time the Fed could also determine whether they should go ahead with faster tapering or not.

II. Valuation is at high level

It is noteworthy that liquidity withdrawing would make the US equity face pressure, especially at current valuation levels. The US equity market cap to GDP ratio at this moment is 215% versus 100% at the peak level in1929 and 150% before the 2000 internet bubble crash. The valuation of equity inthe pandemic era has been high and would not cause the stock market to fall unless that economy goes down. 

III. 3Q2022 might the peak of the US economy

We deem that 3Q2021 might be the peak of the US economy in this recovery and from 4Q2021 on the US economy would come down gradually. The US stocks might be faced with headwind in the near term. We need to pay attention to any downward pressure from economy and at the same time towatch any development from Omicron.

IV. The first case emerged in the US

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Financials and property sector rose the most while photovoltaic sector fell due to that the leading player lowered silicon chip prices. The US stocks fell sharply as the first case of Omicron was found at San Francisco. The patient has been fully vaccinated. He has mild symptoms and does not need to be hospitalized. The travelling stocks fell sharply. The10-year treasury yield fell to 1.41%. WHO said that 23 countries have found Omicron cases and expected the number to grow. WHO suggested that the tools to prevent the transmission of other variants would also apply well to Omicron.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。