壹 穿越牛熊的板块

     投资人都希望找到能够穿越牛熊的股票，但这种股票不仅不可多得，而且不是一层不变。比如过去10年，医药被认为是可以穿越牛熊的，但是在集采政策打压下，板块一蹶不振。消费也曾经被认为是可以穿越牛熊的，但是，今年以来消费股的表现也不尽人意。

     贰 牛股在熊市的表现

     现在美股被简称为FAAMNG的六大科技股在2008年金融危机之后表现较好，也被认为是可以穿越牛熊的股票。但是，其中的苹果和微软在2000年互联网泡沫破灭后股价大幅下跌。苹果股价在2000年3月27日达到上市以来最高点150.38美金，之后一路下跌，直到2002年8月份达到调整的最低点12.72美金，下跌幅度达到91.5%。微软的股价表现比苹果好一些，其最高点在1999年4月，当时股价为180.38美元，之后开启一年多的下跌，在2000年12月最低跌到45美金，下跌了75%。

     叁 A股公司

     A股里也有很多公司在景气高点和低点的股价差异巨大，比如某工程机械龙头公司，其最高点的股价在2007年8月份为70.8元，之后开启了长达9年的下跌，这期间该股票在2014 到2015年的牛市中有过较大幅度的反弹，之后再度下跌，到2016年2月份达到最低点4.55元。

     肆 除非你忘记了股票投资

     看到中美这些牛股在熊市的表现，很难想象一个投资人能够忍受股价如此大幅度的调整。因此穿越牛熊在某种意义上就是一个伪命题：所有股票都会在牛市大幅上涨后在熊市大幅下跌，没有股票能够穿越牛熊，除非投资人不关注股市。对投资人的启示就是：在股市狂热的时候，需要注意投资风险，否则会损失惨重；而在股市惨淡的时候，投资人要积极寻找投资机会，因为这可能就是捡钱的时刻。要知道美股的科技牛股就是从互联网泡沫破灭后才开始长期慢牛行情的。

     伍 美股强劲反弹

     港股上涨，A股微跌。虽然美股因受到奥密克戎第一例病例的消息冲击而下跌，但A股和港股表现出较强韧性。港股金融股领涨市场，科技股下跌。高盛发表报告指近期阿里巴巴的电商零售总体交易总额(GMV)增长将会放慢，因受宏观经济及零售增长转弱影响。今年中国第三季度在线实物商品零售额按年增速放缓至8.7%，整体服装及化妆品零售额按年分别下跌1.5%及上升2.2%。美股上涨，市场从奥密克戎的恐慌中恢复。但美股盘后传来纽约州新增5例奥密克戎新病例的消息，股指期货随之下跌。

I. Stocks that can ride through the bull and bear market

Are there any stocks that can ride through the bull and bear market? It would be challenging to find such stocks as they change all the time. Take the example of medicine stocks, they performed well over the last 10 years but were hammered by the centralized purchasing policies. Consumption stocks also offered good return over the last 5 years but did not perform well this year.

II. Tech stocks in the US

The FAANMG stocks in the US delivered good return for investors over the last 10 years. But in the internet bubble in 2000 they were hit hardly as well. The stock of Apple reached its peak on March 27th, 2000 at US$ 150.38 and then began to decline. It fell to its lowest point in August 2001at US$ 12.72, down 91.5% from its peak more than a year ago. Microsoft also saw its stock price to down sharply in the internet bubble. Its high point was US$180.38 in April 1999 and fell to the lowest point in December 2000 at US$ 45,down 75%.

III. A machinery stock in A-share

The same thing happens to A-share. A leading machinery player in China saw its stock price reach the highest point in August 2007 and then fall to the lowest point in 2016 at RMB 4.55, down 93.5%. Hence, few stocks can ride through the bull and bear market without damage. Investors should remain cautious in bull market but become brave in bear market. In this way he or she can ride through the bull and bear market.

IV. The US stocks rebounded sharply

Both A-share and HK stocks rose.Low-valued sectors such as financials and property sector rose the most while new energy sectors were lackluster. Goldman Sachs pointed out that China’s online sales of goods slowed down to 8.7% year-on-year in 3Q2021 and might continue the trend going forward. As the largest online goods platform in China Alibaba would be hit badly. Alibaba stock fell 2.47% in HK market, the lowest since its listing in November 2019. It fell 0.48% in the US market. The US stocks rebounded sharply as market shrugged off the concern of Omicron. Yet after market close it was reported that five cases of Omicron were found in New York. The US stock future indexes fell on this news.

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