周四A股下跌，港股上涨。隔夜美股大涨对A股并没有任何带动，A股全天振荡下行，小幅收跌。成交金额较前一交易日略所降低。申万28个行业中17个上涨，涨幅居前的为钢铁、通信和电子，跌幅居前的为银行、休闲服务和商业贸易。港股前一交易日大跌后，周四小幅上涨，成交量与前一交易日持平。恒生12个综合行业中9个上涨，能源、金融和公用事业下跌。而医疗保健、原材料和科技行业领涨。北上资金净流出10.6亿人民币，南下资金净流入58.9亿港币，较前一交易日增加40%。

增长率陷阱。增长率陷阱是杰里米·西格尔在其著作《投资者的未来》中提出的概念。所谓增长率陷阱就是投资者对成长型股票支付过高的价格，导致投资收益下降。在增长率陷阱中，投资者追求激动人心的新产品、新技术，购买热门股票和投资于快速发展的国家。但事实证明，新兴的产业和公司不仅不能为投资者带来丰厚的回报，而且他们的收益也比不上那些传统企业。根据西格尔的研究，对于长期投资者而言，股利至关重要。股利再投资是长期股票投资获利的关键因素。最近媒体报道一个长达85年的被动投资基金获得了5000多倍收益，年化收益为10.58%，其中一个关键因素就是股利再投资。成长型股票都是低股利甚至不发放股利的公司。其次，股票的长期收益并不是由实际利润增长情况所决定的，而是取决于实际的利润增长与投资者预期的利润增长之间的差异。这就是通常提到的预期差。对高成长股票，预期往往较高，一旦预期落空，股价就会在戴维斯双杀下大幅回落。巴菲特曾用一句话回应追逐热门股票：去火星探险是激动人心的，不过让别人去吧。

欧央行对经济的支持将会延续到明年。欧元区到夏季将会有70%的人口接种新冠疫苗，1季度经济环比4季度下跌，但预计2季度经济将会强劲增长，通胀也会上升。欧央行预计2021年的通胀水平为1.5%，低于2%的政策目标。欧洲央行内部有声音提出削减债券购买，期望3季度欧央行削减债券购买规模，但也有分析师认为直到2022年欧央行才有可能开始削减债券购买计划。

美股下跌。经济数据好于预期，但资本利得税将翻倍冲击股市。

A-share fellslightly and HK stocks rose on Thursday. 17 out of 28 sectors rosein A-share with iron and steel, telecom and electronic leading the market. Bankand leisure service fell. 9 out of 12 sectors in HK rose with healthcare, raw material and tech sector rising the most. Energy, financial and utilities sector fell. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 1.06 billion. South-bound  capital net inflow of HK$ 5.89 billion, up 40% from that on Wednesday.   

Growth rate trap. Growth rate trap is a concept that Jeremy Siegel brought up in his book “The future for investors”. Growth rate trap refers to that investors pay high premium to high-growth stocks and this results in low return in the future. In growth rate trap investors chase those hot technology and products and buy high-growth sectors and countries. According to Siegel these hot stocks and sectors cannot provide the same return as the traditional sectors. Dividend reinvestment is a key for long-term return. But high-growth companies usually pay little dividend. Moreover, investment return does not depend on the real growth rate but on the difference between real growth rate and the expected growth rate. For those high-growth stocks the expectation is usually high. In case that the growth rate does not meet expectation stock prices would suffer Davis double-killing.

The US stocks fell. The initial jobless claimlast week was 547,000, better than expected. The news that Biden is considering to raise capital gain tax from 20% to 39.7% for income above US$ 1 million sent stocks to fall swiftly. European stocks rose as the European Central Bank would continue to support economy until 2022. It is expected that 70% European would get vaccinated by summer. While economic growth in Euro-region fell quarter-on-quarter in 1Q2021 due to the pandemic, economy would grow faster in 2Q2021 with the pandemic under control. 

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