五一假期外围股市涨跌互现。其中资源国国家指数涨幅居前，包括俄罗斯和澳大利亚，而科技市值占比较大的地区比如台湾和纳斯达克则跌幅较大。港股三个交易日恒生指数、国企指数和科技指数分别累计下跌1.1%、0.95%和2.47%。恒生12个综合行业中5个上涨、7个下跌，原材料和能源行业涨幅居前，而科技和医疗保健跌幅居前。五一期间，国内消费旺盛。但受疫情影响，据2019年的消费水平仍有一定差距。

5月到底穷不穷？进入5月，国内投资人最关心的是“五穷六绝七翻身”的炒股秘诀会否再次应验，国外也有“五月卖出，远离股市”的俗谚。统计数据显示，历史上5月美股的表现并不差。自1980年以来，5月标普500月度平均收益为0.9%，在12个月中的表现按照从弱到强排名第六。A股从2010年以来5月份的平均收益为-0.6%。具体到今年五月穷不穷关键还是看企业盈利和估值的情况。今年2季度对A股部分行业而言面临的是2020年相对高基数，尤其是受益于疫情的股票，包括部分医药企业、宅家消费以及出口行业。这些行业在今年2季度很可能不会看到如去年那么旺盛的需求，因此，业绩有可能面临增速下滑甚至同比负增长的状态。但是，受益经济复苏的行业有可能会在今年2季度盈利增速有较好表现，因为去年疫情将这些行业的经济活动抑制住了。宏观层面，影响市场最大的因素仍然是经济和货币和财政政策。美国财长耶伦周二指出经济过热需要加息，美股科技股大跌。这可以理解为测试市场对加息的承受能力。高估值个股显然承受能力较差，经济复苏股比如银行则受到加息消息的提振而上涨。我们认为美国加息仍然是相对较长一段时间才能发生的事情。近期需要密切关注的是美联储削减债券购买宣布和实施的时间点。上一次削减债券购买时，时任美联储主席伯南克2013年5月国会作证时表示会削减债券购买，2014年1月正式实施。

美股涨跌互现。通用汽车1季度业绩大超预期，股价上涨带动道指上涨。大宗商品股票包括石油、玉米和木材等继续上涨，科技股继续下跌。拜登政府支持放弃对新冠疫苗专利的所有权，疫苗类企业股价大跌。

Global stock markets mixed during the Labor Day holidays.Resource countries’ stocks performed better such as Russia and Australia. Tech lagged behind.Taiwan Weighted Index (TWI) fell 4.4%, the most among global major stock indexes. And Nasdaq fell 2.72%, only better than TWI. Heng Seng Index,China Enterprises Index and Tech Index fell 1.1%,0.95% and 2.47% respectively during Monday and Wednesday. 5 out of 12 Hang Seng composite sectors fell. Raw material and energy sector rose the most while tech and healthcare sector fell the most. Chinese consumption boomed during the holidays as tourists crowded in almost every scenery countrywide. But due to pandemic control measures consumption during the holidays was still below the levels in 2019.

Will May see stock market perform poorly? Sell in May and go away. Investors tend to think that stocks perform poorly in May. Yet from 1980 till 2020 SP 500 delivered 0.9% return in May, which put it at the seventh best-performing month among the 12 months. Shanghai Composite Index delivered an average of -0.6% return in May from 2010 to 2020. We believe that stock performance should be tied to companies’ earnings growth and valuation. For those stocks who benefit from the pandemic in 2Q2020 including healthcare stocks,in-house work and entertainment stocks, they might not see the same demand for their products this year. Hence, their earnings growth might slow down or even slide compared with last year. And for those benefiting from economic recovery, their earnings growth might be strong as pandemic held up these sectors’ activities last year.Whether the Fed will begin to taper bond purchase would have a big impact on the global stock market. In May 23rd, 2013, in testimony to the Congress Fed chairman Bernanke announced that Fed would taper. Then Fed announced its taper plan in Dec. 2013 and began to execute the plan in Jan. 2014.

The US stocks mixed on Wednesday. Commodity stocks rose while tech stocks continued to slide. 

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