上周（下周）全球主要指数涨多跌少。资源国指数涨幅领先，巴西、俄罗斯和澳大利亚分别上涨3.6%、2.6%和1.7%，位居全球16个主要国家和地区指数涨幅前三名。只有上证指数、恒生指数和日经指数下跌，分别下跌0.2%、0.7%和0.7%。A股和港股年初以来涨幅落后全球其他主要国家和地区指数，A股主要受到流动性回收的影响，而港股主要受到疫情的冲击，但港股表现总体好于A股。A股申万28个行业中17个上涨，11个下跌，化工、通信和采掘领涨，而休闲服务、家用电器和休闲服务领跌；港股12个综合行业4个上涨，8个下跌。其中科技、医疗保健和能源行业上涨，而原材料、金融和公用事业跌幅领先。北上资金净流入89亿人民币，南下资金净流入43.7亿港币。北上和南下净流入金额较前一周均有所减少。

非农就业数据再度不及预期。5月非农就业人数仍然低于市场预期，这是在4月份之后连续第二月低于市场预期。而且低于预期的原因也都是一样的：首先是疫情期间发放的救济金太好，美国人连工作的动力都没有了；其次，学校还没开学，需要大人在家里面看孩子；最后，还有很多人觉得疫情还没控制住，不想冒着风险去工作。这三个因素可能都需要时间来解决。对于救济金过高的问题，美国目前已经有25个州选择停止发放州政府的失业救济金，而联邦政府的失业救济金需要等到9月份才能停止发放。而学校也需要等到9月份才能开学，届时家长们才可能出来找工作。最后，预计美国到秋季可以实现疫苗接种覆盖所有成年人，疫情也能够得到有力控制。5月非农就业数据再度低于预期，有可能会延迟美联储缩减债券购买计划的时机，因为美联储将就业视为主要的政策目标，即使下周公布的消费者价格指数涨幅超出预期，也不会促使其回收流动性。5月非农就业数据对美元构成压力，预计美元近期将走弱。人民币可能还会面临一定的升值压力，有利于A股。而美元走弱，有利于港股，具体请参见我们2020年12月发表在枫瑞视点微信公众号上的文章港股明年大概率跑赢A股。

美股上周五上涨。FAANG股票领涨，国债收益率走低。

Most of the global major indexes rose last week (the same below). Commodity countries including Russia, Brazil and Australia saw their indexes rally. A-share fell while HK stocks rose slightly and both lagged behind other major indexes. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 8.9 billion and HK$ 437 million. Both were lower than the net inflow in previous week.

Non-farm payrolls in May came in lower than expected.  The reasons include that enhanced employment benefits have made it harder for employers to fill low-paying jobs, working parents continue to struggle with child care, and some workers are sitting out because of the pandemic concerns. Now 25 states have opted out of enhanced unemployment insurance payments ahead of the federal expiration, which would come in September. In September schools will reopen and parents can go out to look for jobs. Moreover, by September all of the adults in the US should be vaccinated fully, meaning that the pandemic could be under well control. But before that non-farm payrolls might continue to come in short of expectation despite the strong demand of workers. Market believed that Fed would delay its tapering plan due to the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls data. Despite that Consumer Price Index in May, which would be released this week, might come in higher than expected, Fed would not take back liquidity as it takes full employment as the primary policy target. Because of the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls the US dollar weakened while 10-year Treasury yield fell. The weakening US dollar is beneficial to both A-share and HK stocks. The RMB might face appreciation pressure again. The weakening US dollar is good for HK stocks as analyzed in “The HK market could outperform A-share in 2021” published in official wechat--Maple Insights in Dec. 2020.

The US stocks rallied last Friday. Big tech companies—FAANG stocks rose the most as treasury yield fell. 

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