上周（下同）全球主要指数涨多跌少。全球16个主要国家和地区的指数中，10个上涨，1个持平，5个下跌。其中俄罗斯指数、纳斯达克指数和法国股指涨幅领先，而德国股指持平，道琼斯指数、巴西股指、A股上证和深证及港股恒生指数下跌。上周石油价格继续飙升，俄罗斯指数受益。而随着美国国债收益率下跌，大型科技股重拾升势，纳指涨幅喜人。上半年即将过去，我们将在6月19日晚8点通过腾讯会议讨论下半年投资机会，腾讯会议号为783 974 744，电话拨入中国大陆为+86 755 3655 0000，中国香港为+852 3001 8898，会议密码为202106，欢迎拨冗参会。

A股和港股行业表现。A股申万28个行业中14个上涨，14个下跌，其中计算机软件、综合和汽车涨幅领先，而农林牧渔、食品饮料和家用电器跌幅领先。上周白酒股大幅调整，引发市场对白酒板块是否见顶的讨论。白酒股估值处在历史较高水平，如今年业绩增速下行，则板块见顶概率较大。港股恒生12个综合行业中，7个上涨，5个下跌。其中能源、公用事业和医疗保健涨幅居前，而金融、综合和科技行业跌幅居前。

你在哪个阵营？美国国债收益率近期跌落到1.5%以下。华尔街知名分析师大卫·罗森博格认为近期的高通胀是因供需暂时不匹配造成的，不会持续，而美国国债收益率将回落到1%的水平。他建议买入消费防御股，回避周期股和受益经济复苏的股票。美联储周二和周三将进行议息会议，市场关注其是否讨论何时进行债券削减的讨论。多数华尔街大行与美联储的想法一致，认为通胀是暂时的，此次议息会议美联储将不会讨论何时缩减债券购买规模，因美联储的主要政策目标失业率仍处在高位。当前美国隐性失业率仍高达8-9%，离充分就业还有很大距离。有25个州已取消了每周300美金的额外失业救济，这25个州占美国失业人口总数的1/4。取消额外失业补贴可能会促使200万人口加入劳动大军。随着疫苗接种持续覆盖更多人群及联邦失业救济金在9月份到期，就业状况将会有较大改观，届时美联储将开始讨论缩减债券规模。但是通胀在这个过程中是一个扰动因素。下半年通胀如持续上涨，美联储将被迫提早收回流动性。通胀是短暂的还是持久的？你站在哪一边？

Most of the global major indexes rose last week (the same below). As oil prices hit new high since the pandemic, Russia stocks rose the most among the 16 major indexes globally. 5 stock indexes fell which include DOW, Brazil Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and Hang Seng Index.  

Which camp are you in?  The US 10-year Treasury yield fell below 1.5% following the lower-than-expected May non-farm payroll data. David Rosenberg, a famous Wall Street economist, believed that the current high inflation was caused by surging demand and supply shortage and won’t last long. He recommended defensive stocks and considered that consumer cyclical stocks and reopening trades would be hurt by falling treasury yield. The Federal Reserve will have Federal Open Market Conference (FOMC) on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Market will pay attention to whether they have talked about talking about taper. Most investment banks expect that inflation would not last long. They also do not expect Fed to talk about taper in this FOMC as the unemployment rate is still at high levels. The recessive unemployment rate is 8-9%, much higher than full employment, which is the policy target of the Fed. 25 states, which account for one quarter of total unemployment population,  ended the extra US$300 weekly payment. As a result some 2 million population can get into the labor force. With vaccination rolling out smoothly and federal unemployment payment to end in September, the unemployment rate would drop further. By then the Fed could talk about taper.Yet inflation will be a key factor to watch. If it persists, then Fed would be forced to take back liquidity earlier than expected. Is inflation to persist or not, which camp are you in?

The US stocks mixed on Monday. Tech stocks rallied as the treasury yield fell to three-month low. Nasdaq rose 0.74%. DOW fell slightly. The three major indexes are all at record levels. Market is waiting for the signal of tapering from FOMC.

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