价值陷阱。我们在2021年4月23日的枫瑞视点中发表了《增长率陷阱》，讨论了投资者预期收益过高之后，股票回报不及预期的增长率陷阱。与增长率陷阱相对应的是价值陷阱。价值陷阱是股票表面看上去很便宜，有投资价值，但由于基本面持续恶化，估值越来越贵。价值陷阱通常被分成四大类。第一类是被技术进步淘汰的。这类公司的市场空间常常因为技术更迭而完全消失，因此他们的低估值其实是反应未来暗淡的发展前景。高科技行业不仅是增长率陷阱的高发行业，也是价值陷阱的高发行业。BP机、录影机等电子产品都被新技术推动的产品所取代了。彼特·林奇承认尽管他对高科技兴趣不大，但也经常被诱惑，结果就是“最终我毫不惊讶的发现，我手中的科技股是最持续的输家”。第二类是赢家通吃行业里的小公司。互联网领域是赢家通吃的典范。脸书、谷歌、亚马逊在社交平台、搜索和电商中的市占率均超过70%，就是互联网赢家通吃的典型写照。由于这些大公司的存在这，业内的小股票即使再便宜也可能是价值陷阱。第三类是重资产的夕阳产业。这些行业因为需求没有了，重资产对其利润的拖累越发明显，因此，估值便宜其实是反应行业需求不再。第四类是景气顶点的周期股。周期股在景气顶点，也是其市盈率估值最低的时候，看似便宜，但因为此时的利润增速是不可持续的，所以要卖出而不是买入。价值投资者何时能够逃出价值陷阱呢？首先，就是这些处于价值陷阱的公司基本面好转。其次，创造出新的价值，比如上世纪90年代的苹果，在乔布斯的带领下开启了创新浪潮。年初以来，A股曾经无人问津的价值陷阱股票纷纷表现，包括周期股、银行股等。近期，石油板块的表现更是让投资人体会了不满仓中石油的后果。而这些价值陷阱纷纷变成白马股主要是因为基本面发生了好转。

周二A股上涨，港股继续下跌，而美股上升。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会作证时表示大部分价格上涨是由于疫情造成的供应短缺和经济重启所引起的需求扩张，二者的错配所引起的。但他也承认价格上涨的水平和持续的时间可能会比美联储预期的时间长。纳斯达克指数创出历史新高，标普500离最高点咫尺之遥。港股连续第二天下跌，与经济复苏相关的股票领跌，主要是中国因广东疫情扩散而采取进一步的隔离措施造成。A股医药生物涨幅领先，因广东疫情持续扩散。石油板块上涨，油价创出2019年4月以来的新高，而白马龙头股持续下跌。

Value trap. We published “The growth trap” in our official wechat “Maple Insight” on April 23rd,2021. Value trap is like another side of growth trap. In value trap, the stocks seem very cheap. However, as the company’s fundamentals continue to deteriorate, valuation would become more and more expensive. There are four types of stocks falling into value trap. The first is those that become outdated due to the improvement and advancement of technology. High-tech companies usually fall into this category. Peter Lynch, the renowned investor, admitted that he was attracted by high-tech companies from time to time. Yet it turned out these high-tech companies were always the laggard play in his portfolio.  The second is the smaller companies in a sector where the market leader would take all of the market share in the sector. This is especially true in internet.  For example,Google, Facebook and Amazon take more than 70% market share in search, social platform and e-commerce. In these sectors, small companies would find it challenging to grow up. The third is those stocks with high capex-to-sales ratio in a sunset industry. The demand for their products is dwindling. Yet high capex drags down their earnings growth.  The last one is cyclical stocks. They would enjoy a low price-to-earnings ratio when their products’ prices are at the peak levels. Yet, with their products’ prices coming down their valuation would become expensive. So for those cyclical stocks in the latter half of cycle, they are value trap. In A-share many stocks that used to be in value trap have performed well year-to-date. These include base metals, banks and oil stocks. The reason is that their fundamentals have improved with the economy recovery.

A-share rose, HK stocks fell and the US stocks rose.  The Federal Reserve ChairmanPowell said that a majority of the inflation was caused by the mismatch between supply shortage and reopening demand. He admitted that inflation might persist longer and higher than they expected. A-share rose with medicine stocks rising the most as the pandemic in Guangdong Province was spreading.

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