美国股债大跌，美元上涨。周一美国10年期国债收益率下跌到1.2%以下，为5个月以来的新低。如果债券市场对经济的预期是对的，那说明美国经济很可能要下行。另一方面，美联储要削减债券购买计划。在此情况下，利率应该上行。债券诡异的下行是因为什么呢？有一部分分析师认为是交易性因素导致的。今年美股表现很好，机构投资者在股市赚钱之后回头又买入债券，压低了债券的利率。归根结底是流动性过于充裕造成的。而美元指数在5月25日达到89.6565低点，之后一路反弹上冲到92.8285，周一略有回落。因OPEC+达成石油增产协议，叠加新冠疫情加剧可能会减少对石油的需求，石油价格周一大跌。美债、美股和石油下跌结合美元上涨，给人感觉是避险情绪在发生作用。我们认为主要是市场对Delta病毒的担忧。但根据美国知名对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼，Delta病毒将会促使更多的人去接种新冠疫苗，其实对疫情控制是有利的。比尔·阿克曼认为美国国债收益率最终还是会上升，并认为美国经济会在秋季有强劲表现。但另一方面，美国经济同比增速在今年2季度达到高点之后，3、4季度将会下行。如同中国经济在1季度同比增速达到高点之后，2季度开始下行一样。但这并不代表经济失去了增长的动力。环比来看，中国2季度的经济增速是比1季度要高的。美国的情况也应如此，特别是美国股市上涨幅度巨大，居民财富增值很多。同时，巨额财政刺激下，老百姓手头也很宽裕，且有可能是史上最宽裕的时期。这意味着美国经济3季度的环比增长将会比较强劲。未来有可能是国债收益率上升和美股上涨叠加美元指数回升。市场还担心美联储和财政部手里没有多少弹药可用，美国经济可能会从此一蹶不振。美联储和财政部联手实施的现代货币政策理论其实意味着量化宽松没有上限，但是对经济的后果就是增大债务量，将问题发生的时间后移。

周一A股微跌，港股大跌。今年以来，因中国政府收紧流动性，A股和港股涨幅落后于全球股市。受中美关系影响，港股7月份以来接连下跌。另一方面，我国货币政策已有所松动，对股市提供支撑。而上半年缺位的财政政策下半年也将会发力，因此经济下行将是可控的、温和的。因此，我们认为A股和港股跟跌美股的可能性较小。

The US is not in another crisis. On Monday the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.206%, the lowest from Feb. 2021. The US stocks fell sharply amid the concern of rising new cases caused by Delta variant. In the meantime the US dollar rose to a new high from the end of May. As the Federal Reserve is preparing to taper the bond yield should rise rather than fall. Some analysts believed that falling treasury yield was due to that the institutional investors took profits from stock markets and put the money into bond market,i.e., the bond prices were driven up by abundant liquidity. But the combination of falling treasury yield, stocks prices tumble along with rising US dollar usually means a big risk is looming. This risk is highly transmissible Delta variant. But according to a famous hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, the Delta variant would push more American to get vaccinated. This is actually good for the economy. Moreover, with huge cash in hands the American consumers would spend and boost economy. He believed that the US economy would be robust in the fall. Contrary to his optimism, many analysts believe that the US economy is peaking in 2Q2021. The bond market is reflecting that economy would slow down gradually. It is true that on year-on-year basis the US economy would peak out in 2Q2021 due to the low base in 2020. But from quarter-on-quarter perspective the US economy would grow strongly for the 3rd quarter. The American consumers have enjoyed the big increase of fortune as the stock market rallied year-to-date. Moreover, they also have big cash on hands issued by government as unemployment compensation.

A-share fell slightly while HK stocks fell sharply. If the US market corrects would A-share and HK stocks follow suit? We believe the possibility is nothigh. Both A-share and HK stocks lagged behind other major stock markets year-to-date. Moreover, HK markets recently corrected a lot due to the deteriorating Sino-US relationship. Both have much lower valuation than global peers. As China controls COVID-19 pandemic better than any other country in the world, A-share and HK stocks should be considered as safe heaven.

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