看估值，看估值，看估值。周一A股和港股大跌，教育培训和房地产板块下跌应是意料之中。让人想不到的是白酒板块居然跌幅居前，白酒指数当日下跌7.22%。很多人认为白酒基本面良好，暴跌没有理由。上周公布的公募基金二季报显示：虽然食品饮料还是公募基金配置最大的一个板块，截止2季度末公募基金配置比例为16.74%，但也是减仓幅度最大的一个板块。二季度公募基金在食品饮料板块减仓幅度达到2.12个百分点。其中中小公募基金减仓食品饮料的幅度最大，规模较大的基金减仓幅度较小，真正体现了“船大难掉头，船小好调头”。基金二季报披露出来的信号就是抱团已经瓦解，而股价还没有大跌主要是时机未到。周一股价大跌白酒等板块大跌，一个催化剂就是来自对政策的担忧。白酒板块过去几年表现靓丽，资本介入程度也较深。有些上市公司依靠转型白酒而实现了“乌鸡变凤凰”。资本介入往往意味着泡沫较大。看某知名白酒股，即使已经从高点下跌了31%，其静态市盈率仍高达47.7倍。白酒板块整体静态市盈率为48.5倍，处在历史上92.3%的分位。估值仍然处在较高水平也说明目前并不是抄底的好时机。水井坊的二季报也是引爆板块暴跌的一个推手。作为酱香型白酒的一个代表，水井坊二季度净利润为负，主要因为费用投放过高导致。这也意味着白酒行业内部竞争的加剧。估值高叠加基本面恶化导致板块大跌。其他如医美、CXO等板块的下跌也有类似的逻辑。在年初买入这些热门板块的投资人很可能都站在了山岗上。归根结底，投资还是要看估值的，也没有可以持有一辈子的股票。即使有，也需要历经波折的。如何避免站在山岗上呢？一方面，在买入股票时就要关注估值。正如我们之前多次指出的，没有企业能够长期保持盈利的高速增长。以短期的盈利高增长而给予股票高估值，这本身就是一种风险。另一方面，要关注行业和个股的基本面变化。一旦基本面拐点发生，股价就要掉头向下了。

港股跌幅大于A股。在互联网、房地产和教育板块的带领下，港股周一大跌。博彩板块跌幅也较大，应该跟疫情相关。南京疫情持续扩散，珠海等地又发现新的病例。这波疫情对3季度经济增长恐怕会带来一定的冲击。

How to avoid being the last buyers of stocks? On Monday after-school training and property sector in A-share fell sharply due to policy impact. Yet spirit sector fell even more than these two sectors. The spirit index fell 7.2%, the worst performing index in A-share. Some investors thought that the fundamentals of spirit sector were solid and did not understand why the sector fell so much. The 2nd quarter report of mutual funds revealed that food and beverage sector, which spirit sector belongs to, remained as the largest holding for mutual funds. But it was also the largest sector that mutual funds cut exposure. In the 2ndquarter mutual funds cut 2.7 percentage point of food and beverage holdings. Most of the cut should be from spirits sector as this sector attracts the most mutual funds in A-share. And the bigger the funds are, the less exposure they cut; the smaller the funds are, the more exposure they cut. This means that spirit sector is no longer a group-holding one with so many funds exiting from the sector.Stocks would go lower with catalysts. On Monday one concern that market had about the spirit sector is that there is so much money flowing into this sector both in primary and secondary market. Hence, the sector has been in bubbles.Take the example of a famous spirit stock: it is still valued at 47.7x trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) even after falling 31% from its peak reached earlier this year. The spirit sector is valued at 48.5x TTW PE and at 92.5% percentile in the past 10 years. Given such high valuation levels it is not a good timing to bottom fish the sector right now. In summary investors should learn about the valuation level of a stock before buying it. It could be a risk to buy a high-valued stock just because the earnings growth of the company is fast. A company can not grow its earnings at a fast pace for a very long time. Once its earnings growth slows down valuation would also come down. 

HK stocks fell more than A-share.One reason could be that pandemic from Nanjing has spread to other parts of China.

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